An ELECTION EXIT POLL is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll , which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll . Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count.
* 1 History * 2 Purpose * 3 Problems * 4 Organizations that conduct election exit polling * 5 Criticism and controversy * 6 References * 7 Further reading * 8 External links
There are different views on who invented the exit poll. Marcel van
Dam , Dutch sociologist and former politician, claims to be the
inventor, by being the first to implement one during the Dutch
legislative elections on February 15, 1967. Other sources say Warren
Mitofsky , an American pollster, was the first. For
Exit polls are also used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did. Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information.
Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against, and rough indicator of, the degree of election fraud . Some examples of this include the Venezuelan recall referendum, 2004 , and the Ukrainian presidential election, 2004 .
They are used to command a mandate as well as to determine whether or not a particular political campaign was successful or not.
The distribution of votes is not even across different polling stations, and also varies at different times of day. As a result, a single exit poll may give an imperfect picture of the national vote. Instead, the exit poll is primarily used to calculate swing and turnout . Pollsters return to the same polling stations at the same times at each election, and by comparing the results with previous exit polls they can calculate how the distribution of votes has changed in that constituency. This swing is then applied to other similar constituencies, allowing an estimate of how national voting patterns have changed. The polling locations are chosen to cover the entire gamut of society and where possible, to include especially critical marginal seats . Data is presented in one of three ways, either as a table , graph or written interpretation.
Like all opinion polls, exit polls by nature do include a margin of
error . A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK
Because exit polls require a baseline to compare swing against, they are not reliable for one-off votes such as the Scottish independence referendum or the UK EU membership referendum . Because exit polls can't reach people who voted by postal ballot or another form of absentee voting , they may be biased towards certain demographics and miss swings that only occur among absentee voters. For example, in the May round of the Austrian presidential election, 2016 , exit polls correctly pointed to a narrow lead for Norbert Hofer among those who voted at a polling station. However, the postal votes (which made up about 12% of the total vote) were slightly but definitively in favour of his rival Alexander Van der Bellen , and ultimately gave Van der Bellen victory.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT CONDUCT ELECTION EXIT POLLING
The examples and perspective in this article MAY NOT REPRESENT A WORLDWIDE VIEW OF THE SUBJECT. You may improve this article , discuss the issue on the talk page , or create a new article , as appropriate. (December 2010) (Learn how and when to remove this template message )
In the United States, the National
The release of exit poll data in the US has been met with increased scrutiny in recent years. In the 2012 election protocols to quarantine the release of data were put in place.
In Egypt, the Egyptian center for public opinion research (baseera) conducted in 2014 two exit polls; the constitution referendum exit poll and the presidency elections exit polls. These exit polls are considered the first exit polls to be conducted not only in Egypt but also in the Middle East (www.baseera.com.eg).
CRITICISM AND CONTROVERSY
Widespread criticism of exit polling has occurred in cases,
especially in the
Some countries, including the United Kingdom and Germany, have made
it a criminal offence to release exit poll figures before all polling
stations have closed, while others, such as Singapore, have banned
them altogether. In some instances, problems with exit polls have
encouraged polling groups to pool data in hopes of increased accuracy.
This proved successful during the 2005 UK general election , when the
In Bulgaria, where the announcement of exit polling results is
illegal in the election day and despite an explicit ban to this
effect, many news agencies regularly publish "rankings" of various
seemingly unrelated subjects throughout election days. Examples of
such spoof rankings from the 2013 elections include made-up "weather
forecasts", fake "tourist information", the popularity of
non-existent computer games, humorously-titled "literature" and
even a list of most popular brothels . In the first example, the
temperatures are shown to be highest on Pozitano street and at the NDK
(respectively the headquarters of the BSP and GERB parties), while in
the second, the most popular tourist destination in the country is
reported to be the small town of
There was a widespread controversy during the Indian general
election, 2014 when the
* Politics portal
* ^ Van Dam, Marcel P. A. and Jan Beishuizen (1967) Kijk op de
kiezer. Amsterdam: Het Parool
* ^ Warren J. Mitofsky, 71, Innovator Who Devised Exit Poll, Dies,
New York Times, 4 September 2006
* ^ David W. Moore, Senior Gallup Poll Editor, “New Exit Poll
Consortium Vindication for Exit Poll Inventor,” Gallup News Service,
October 11, 2003
* ^ Frankovic, K. A (1992) Technology and the Changing Landscape of
Media Polls and Fritz J. Scheuren, Wendy Alvey (2008) Elections and
Exit Polling p.5
* ^ A B Delphine Strauss (31 May 2016). "The hedge funds\' EU
referendum exit polls are not to be trusted". Financial Times.
Retrieved 9 June 2016.
* ^ A B Anthony J Wells (1 June 2016). "Exit Polls on the EU
Referendum". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 9 June 2016.
* ^ A B David Firth (May 2010). "Exit polling explained".
Department of Statistics, University of Warwick. Retrieved 10 June
* ^ Best, Samuel J.; Brian S. Krueger (2012). Exit Polls: Surveying
the American Electorate, 1972-2010. CQ Press. p. 1,2. ISBN
9781452234403 . Retrieved 28 November 2016.
* ^ Market Research Society (1994). "The Opinion Polls and the 1992
Election: a Report to the Market Research Society". London: Market
* ^ Payne, Clive (2001-11-28). "
* Blumenthal, Mark (2008). "Questions About Exit Polls".
Pollster.com. Retrieved 4 November 2008.
* Joan Konner; James Risser; Ben Wattenberg (29 January 2001).
"Television\'s Performance on